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UPSTREAM EP ADVISORS
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Beyond P10/P50/P90: AI, Vectored Uncertainty and the Future of Investment Decisions
Knowing, uncertainty is not enough! Monte Carlo Simulation has been doing that for decades, what is important; knowing how widely NPV may vary does not tell us which way the world is moving—or why.
I think of this distinction as scalar versus vectored uncertainty.
Scalar uncertainty asks: How much might the outcome vary?
Vectored uncertainty asks: What plausible future are we moving toward, what forces are driving us there, and what would tell us that direction is b
Tariq Siddiqui,
Aug 272 min read
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Before the Data Room: A Faster Way to Screen Unconventional Shale Deals
Developed a pre-data-room unconventional shale economic screening platform that combines traditional petroleum engineering workflows with Agentic AI review.
The purpose is practical: help private equity groups, investment bankers, angel investors, small oil companies, and consultants form an early technical and financial view of an asset before committing major time and due-diligence cost.
Tariq Siddiqui,
Jul 63 min read
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