Knowing, uncertainty is not enough! Monte Carlo Simulation has been doing that for decades, what is important; knowing how widely NPV may vary does not tell us which way the world is moving—or why. I think of this distinction as scalar versus vectored uncertainty. Scalar uncertainty asks: How much might the outcome vary? Vectored uncertainty asks: What plausible future are we moving toward, what forces are driving us there, and what would tell us that direction is b