• Tariq Siddiqui,

Managing Uncertainty in Capital Projects: With Multiple Subsurface Realizations

Updated: Dec 7, 2020

Multiple realizations help make decisions under uncertainty in capital projects .


Multiple subsurface geological realizations or visualization are developed by geoscientists and reservoir engineers to manage range of uncertainties in the Assess phase of a capital project, when little or no data is available. They help create value in capital projects through appraisal (exploration & development appraisal):


1. Successful projects mitigate risks by managing subsurface uncertainties by FID.

2. High quality decision requires identifying a range in Key Uncertainties

3. Understanding of static/dynamic uncertainties underpin the Appraisal Planning (FEL)

4. Tornado charts helps prioritize subsurface uncertainty and value drivers

5. Develop a Range of Realizations; mutually exclusive & collectively exhaustive

6. Front-End Development team evaluates realizations against range of development concepts

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