Managing Uncertainty in Capital Projects: With Multiple Subsurface Realizations
Updated: Dec 7, 2020
Multiple realizations help make decisions under uncertainty in capital projects .
Multiple subsurface geological realizations or visualization are developed by geoscientists and reservoir engineers to manage range of uncertainties in the Assess phase of a capital project, when little or no data is available. They help create value in capital projects through appraisal (exploration & development appraisal):
1. Successful projects mitigate risks by managing subsurface uncertainties by FID.
2. High quality decision requires identifying a range in Key Uncertainties
3. Understanding of static/dynamic uncertainties underpin the Appraisal Planning (FEL)
4. Tornado charts helps prioritize subsurface uncertainty and value drivers
5. Develop a Range of Realizations; mutually exclusive & collectively exhaustive
6. Front-End Development team evaluates realizations against range of development concepts