Managing Uncertainty in Capital Projects: With Multiple Subsurface Realizations

Multiple realizations help make decisions under uncertainty in capital projects .

Multiple subsurface geological realizations or visualization are developed by geoscientists and reservoir engineers to manage range of uncertainties in the Assess phase of a capital project, when little or no data is available. They help create value in capital projects through appraisal (exploration & development appraisal):

1. Successful projects mitigate risks by managing subsurface uncertainties by FID.

2. High quality decision requires identifying a range in Key Uncertainties

3. Understanding of static/dynamic uncertainties underpin the Appraisal Planning (FEL)

4. Tornado charts helps prioritize subsurface uncertainty and value drivers

5. Develop a Range of Realizations; mutually exclusive & collectively exhaustive

6. Front-End Development team evaluates realizations against range of development concepts