ASSESS

The main objective of the Assess  phase is to demonstrate the 'Feasibility' of the opportunity.  Feasibility implies that there is a high probability of commercial success (NPV > 0) under wide range of scenarios.

 

Assess phase is characterized by divergent thinking:

  1. Looking at the range of of possible subsurface realization

  2. Generating the range of potential development options

  3. Identifying key risks (especially show-stopping risks)

  4. Developing Appraisal strategy to help manage uncertainties and reduce risk.

  5. Prepare Feasibility Report

Subsurface Realizations (see fig below)

  • Range of key uncertainties and potential outcomes helps define  realizations (or visualizations)

  • Realization are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive

Realizations & uncertainty.jpg

Development Options (see fig below)

  • Range of development decisions and development options  define development concepts

Concepts & decisions.jpg

Development Scenarios (see fig below)

  • Range of subsurface realizations and development concepts define a scenario

  • Few development scenarios will be commercially viable (Green), for all subsurface realizations

  • These commercial scenarios will be evaluated in detail in next concept SELECT phase.

Multiple scenarios.jpg

APPRAISAL  (see fig below)

  • Main objective is to gather data and information; it consists of shooting seismic, reprocessing and interpreting seismic or drilling appraisal well. Appraisal typically occurs in ASSESS or SELECT phases. 

    • Exploration Appraisal: is done to delineate field and assess commerciality to support feasibility

    • Development Appraisal: is done to support a decision on field development concept

Appraisal.jpg

Managing Appraisal In Capital Projects

  1. Effective appraisal results in successful outcome (meeting NPV promise at FID) through good FEL 

  2. Exploration Appraisal determines commerciality; i.e. min development threshold (volume) for a concept (EX: SSTB in DW) 

  3. Development Appraisal (Good FEL) aims for optimum concept Select; narrowing uncertainty range and higher accuracy through good FEL

  4. An inadequate FEL results in; ‘fundamental errors’ or ‘Unrealistic optimism’ leading to unsuccessful outcomes (NPV downgrade)

  5. Good FEL results in; ‘Understanding Uncertainty’ or ‘Real Optimism’ leading to successful outcomes (meets NPV & production promise)

FEASIBILITY REPORT  

The Feasibility report will have :

  • All the data sources and subsurface interpretation (Seismic, geologic, petrophysics, reservoir etc.)

  • A detailed risk register highlighting key risks and their mitigations

  • Key subsurface realizations underpinned by key uncertainties 

  • Main development options underpinning the the key development decisions.

  • Economic screening of development concepts against the criteria

  • Further data acquisition and appraisal plans for next concept SELECT phase.

  • Cost estimate at Level-1 (screening; XX%/-YY%)

    • FOR MORE DETAILS ON ASSESS PHASE & FEASIBILITY PLEASE CONTACT US